-Written by AJ Reibel, MIR program, New Zealand
Although economic integration and closer bilateral relations seem to be emerging between the larger Asia-Pacific powers – including the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, the Russian Federation, Australia, and India – a recent report published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies claims that a potentially-destabilising arms race might be underway as Asian powers look to develop ‘blue sea’ naval capabilities.[1] This is especially worrying to strategic planners and international legal experts alike. Northeast Asia, alone, is the scene of competing strategic interests that involve countries that, together, represent 65% of the world military expenditures.[2] Despite the frightening statistics and clamours of military increases, a potential arms race in Asia is not yet comparable to the tense nuclear weapons arms race between the US and the USSR during the stark days of the Cold War.
Nonetheless, Dr. Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute claims that, despite his institute’s talk of an arms race, Asia is not currently exhibiting the highly volatile military spending competition normally evident during an arms race.[3] Dr. Davies insists that increases in military expenditures by China, India, and South Korea, the increases are normal given the economic growth that those countries have experienced over the last few years.[4]
Despite Dr. Davies’s optimism, China has embarked on an ambitious goal of safeguarding its precious energy supplies and countering US dominance on the high seas.[5] China has not only set about building frigates, destroyers, nuclear-powered submarines, but it has also aimed to add two aircraft carriers to its expanding navy.[6] In addition to its fleet upgrades and expansion, Beijing has set about refurbishing its existing naval bases and adding one on Hainan Island and several ports in the Indian Ocean – one in Burma, one in Sri Lanka[7], and another along southern Pakistan’s Baluchistan coast.[8]
China’s naval fleet expansion, increases in missile capabilities, and infrastructure improvements have seemingly rattled India, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. India has embarked on its own naval infrastructure expansion, negotiating with Vietnam for ports, and has committed to developing three aircraft carriers – two of which will be home-built while the third has already been purchased from Russia.[9] Japan is set to launch its first aircraft carrier (referred to as a larger ‘destroyer’) in 2009 and is also planning to purchase nuclear-power submarines, and the newly developed American F-22 stealth fighter/bomber.[10] Lastly, South Korea recently approved a $665 billion strategic defence plan[11] and Taiwan has increased its military spending from 2.6% of GDP in 2006 to 3% in 2008[12].
Therefore, despite Dr. Davies’s reassuring words, military competition has already been unleashed in the Asia-Pacific. Unfortunately the increasing military expenditures and strategically imposing naval arsenals spell trouble for the region. As Dr. Davies does point out, the military build-up of Asia-Pacific’s great and medium powers – including the powers mentioned above, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, and the United States, increases the likelihood of a “serious international incident” that may have wider and more damaging results.[13] As such, the Asia-Pacific military increases do threaten to destabilise a seemingly peaceful and economically integrated region.
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[2] John Feffer, “Hidden Asia Pacific Arms Race: Six Countries Talk Peace While Preparing for War,” Japan Focus, 19 March 2008, http://japanfocus.org/_John_Feffer-Hidden_Asia_Pacific_Arms_Race__Six_Countries_Talk_Peace_While_Preparing_for_War [viewed 27/07/08].
[3] Radio Australia, ‘Fears of Asian arms race unfounded’ 4 July 2008. Listen at: http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/programguide/stories/200807/s2295180.htm [listed to 29/07/08].
[4] Ibid.
[5] __, “Into the Wide Blue Yonder,” The Economist, June 5, 2008, http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11496828 [viewed 29/07/08].
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Vikram Sood, “India and Its External Security,” Vikram Sood’s Perspectives, Wednesday, April 16, 2008, http://soodvikram.blogspot.com/2008/04/india-and-its-external-security.html [viewed 29/07/08].
[9] “Into the Wide Blue Yonder,” The Economist.
[10] Feffer, “Hidden Asia Pacific Arms Race: Six Countries Talk Peace While Preparing for War,” Japan Focus.
[11] Ibid.
12 __, “Taiwan Boosts Military Spending Amid China Increase,” Sino Daily, March 4th, 2008, http://www.sinodaily.com/reports/Taiwan_boosts_military_spending_amid_China_increase_999.html [viewed 29/07/08].
[13] Shipman and Bouchard, “China is Accused of Fuelling Pacific Arms Race,” Sunday Telegraph.
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